https://gc-bs.org/tags/forecasting/Recent content in Forecasting on Global Council for Behavioral ScienceHugo -- gohugo.ioensupport@gc-bs.org (Global Council for Behavioral Science)support@gc-bs.org (Global Council for Behavioral Science)&copy; Global Council for Behavioral Science. All rights reserved.Mon, 17 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://gc-bs.org/articles/outer-view-defeating-overconfidence-bias-through-baserate-forecasting/Mon, 17 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000support@gc-bs.org (Global Council for Behavioral Science)https://gc-bs.org/articles/outer-view-defeating-overconfidence-bias-through-baserate-forecasting/<h2 class="relative group">Introduction <div id="introduction" class="anchor"></div> <span class="absolute top-0 w-6 transition-opacity opacity-0 -start-6 not-prose group-hover:opacity-100 select-none"> <a class="text-primary-300 dark:text-neutral-700 !no-underline" href="#introduction" aria-label="Anchor">#</a> </span> </h2> <p>Capital allocation is the foundational mechanism through which organizations and sovereign entities build their strategic futures. Accurate forecasting of costs, schedules, and benefits is essential to foster trust in decision-making and project viability. However, empirical analysis over the past half-century reveals a systemic failure in predictive accuracy, often eroding confidence in financial models that are detached from reality and favor optimism over objectivity.</p>